A Heavy Dose of Thought

The Brewers are winning, so I have nothing to complain about with them (not that I'm always going to be complaining about the Brewers). The Stanley Cup finals are going on, but nobody seems to care about hockey anymore, so I can't write about a topic nobody likes (even if I do enjoy playoff hockey). I have honestly tried to understand the obsession with NASCAR, but I haven't found the guy (or gal) who can adequately explain to me what is going on besides people driving in circles for 3 hours or so (and I won't even get into the lack of support for open wheel racing, even though F1 racing is the most popular racing circuit in the world). The Belmont Stakes is this weekend, and everyone loves Big Brown to win the Triple Crown, so nothing major to discuss there. No major PGA tournaments going on, and its too early for a Ryder Cup preview post. So that leaves the NBA. Enough ink has been spilled about the Lakers-Celtics final (which I called after some fishy officiating in the Spurs-Lakers series), so I thought that I would post my own mock draft for the NBA draft, especially since the Bucks are in the limbo group of picks (6-10) and might need some help. I'm only going to focus on the lottery teams (picks 1-14), and will not consider any trades unless they are officially made before the draft.

First of all, let's review how screwy the picking process is in the NBA draft. I don't mean the lottery system, or the allocation of picks after the 14 lottery teams, I'm talking about how NBA teams feel about where the pick sits and what to do with it. Teams drafting 1-5 are theoretically the worst teams in the league, and need the most help. Most drafts go, at best, 5 deep in guaranteed, sure-fire talent. Every once in awhile there is a draft like 2001 (I think), when the only halfway decent player drafted was Kenyon Martin and no one else has distinguished himself in any way. However, picking 1-5 means you're going to get a pretty decent, NBA ready player, so your pick focuses on that premise (unless you're the Hawks). Picking 10-14 is the bottom of the lottery, and teams picking at that level are either thisclose to making the playoffs or beset by injuries/mismanagement, so the pick is either a player picked a little too high because he's immediately ready to play, or a development pick that needs a few years but can back-up a position of need immediately. Teams picking at 15-30 are either playoff teams looking for depth and potential future starters, or a lottery-level team that picked up an extra pick in a salary dump trade looking to build depth and youth. Teams picking 6-10, like the Bucks are, are lottery teams that are bad, but unlucky enough to fall out of the top of the lottery and into a position where most picks are considered a reach at that particular spot and there are no trade partners available to trade down with because drafts don't go 8-10 deep in quality players. More often than not, upside is the rule rather than ability, as non "upside" players picked here have definitely maxed out their ability level and you get what you see. On to the Mock Draft:

#1--Chicago Bulls; 33-49 (4th Central)
Michael Beasley, 6-10, PF, Kansas State
I'm going against the grain and say that Beasley will end up on the Bulls. GM John Paxson seems to have this thing about over-thinking every decision he makes. Can't seem to hire a coach after seven weeks, can't seem to pull the trigger on a trade during the season for Kobe or KG, can't seem to make decisions without thinking though all the possible outcomes. I say he can't trade Kirk Hinrich or Chris Duhon and will think that all he needs is a low post presence, and that Derrick Rose coming to Chicago with all his old friends and expectations (he went to high school in Chicago) will be a horrible idea, so he'll go with Beasley, who's just as good, but fits a need position.
#2--Miami Heat; 15-67 (5th Southeast)
Derrick Rose, 6-3, PG, Memphis
Miami will zoom up to the podium after the Bulls debacle of a pick and take Rose, pair him with Wade and Marion, and run through the Eastern conference.
#3--Minnesota Timberwolves; 22-60 (4th Northwest)
Kevin Love, 6-10, PF, UCLA
This is where I think the draft goes off the rails. Kevin McHale is not the best GM in the world, and it doesn't seem that he has a plan. But I do think that he pairs Love up with Al Jefferson in a bizarro Robert Parrish/Kevin McHale frontcourt in Minnesota. I think it might work with Jefferson manning the low block and Love manning the high post, running the high-low offense through Love to Jefferson, spreading the floor with Corey Brewer, Randy Foye, and Rashad McCants. Love's passing coupled with the athleticism of the other four starters would make a pretty potent combination.
#4--Seattle Sonics; 20-62 (5th Northwest)
OJ Mayo, 6-4, PG, USC
After the Love pick, Sam Presti (the GM) will be fielding about 100 phone calls from literally every team picking behind him to move up for Mayo. Since Presti is smart, he'll pull the trigger on the best deal for his team, allowing him to pick up another pick, shed a contract, and select a better fit down in the draft. However, if Mayo is off the board Seattle won't get those phone calls, and I think they don't take Mayo or even Jerryd Bayless, I think they might reach for Russell Westbrook. But I'm going to stick Mayo here as the pick if Love goes 3rd because a team will move up for Mayo.
#5--Memphis Grizzles; 22-60 (5th Southwest)
Brook Lopez, 7-0, C, Stanford
As much as I like Stanford players, I don't think Brook Lopez is going to get much better than he is now. What he is though is a polished inside presence that could help Memphis, I guess. Memphis doesn't really care about winning, or selling tickets, they're prepping to move somewhere after the Sonics hostage situation is over, so they can move to wherever they want. Lopez fits a need, in that he plays basketball, can breathe, and is better than Darko Milicic (and they already have about 15-75 point guards on the roster already).
#6--New York Knicks; 23-59 (5th Atlantic)
Jerryd Bayless, 6-3, PG, Arizona
This is the team that is most affected by the Timberwolves/Sonics moves ahead of them. I think that if the draft goes like I think it will Bayless will fall to the Knicks, however, if the movement doesn't happen, I think the Knicks look to either DJ Augustin (a major reach) or Russell Westbrook (a developmental prospect). Either way, this team is focusing on building for 2010 when LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and others become available.
#7--Los Angeles Clippers; 23-59 (5th Pacific)
Danilo Gallinari, 6-9, SF, Italy
The Clippers are going to pull the trigger on this waste of space. I figure that with all the movement ahead of them plus the general incompetence of the front office, the Clips are going to draft for the future. Everyone knows that they're going to lose Corey Maggette and Elton Brand will look around and want to get out of LA. With those two loses, the Clips will want to move to rebuilding, and taking a project foreign guy is the way to go I guess if you're looking to rebuild for 5 years from now.
#8--Milwaukee Bucks; 26-56 (5th Central)
I'll save this for last
#9--Charlotte Bobcats; 32-50 (4th Southeast)
DJ Augustin, 6-0, PG, Texas
Larry Brown loves jerking his lineups around, really likes to play veterans over rookies, and hates developing players. So the perfect pick for a Larry Brown coached team is definitely not a one-and-done college player, not a foreign player who needs to adjust, and not a project in any way. Brown wants a finished product that he can mold, and his controlling exacting personality will adore an experienced point guard without any pre-conceived notions of how to play point in the NBA. Augustin is a good fit for that reason, and because Raymond Felton will probably get injured yet again.
#10--New Jersey Nets; 34-48 (4th Atlantic)
Darrell Arthur, 6-10, PF, Kansas
The Nets need an inside presence. They have Devin Harris and Vince Carter in the back court, Richard Jefferson on the wing, and 7-0 Nenad Krstic playing out of position at power forward. Adding Arthur would move Josh Boone out of the starting lineup backing up Krstic, with Sean Williams backing up Arthur. That starting five could run with any team out east and give some west teams a good run for their money.
#11--Indiana Pacers; 36-46 (3rd Central)
Eric Gordon, 6-4, SG, Indiana
Jermaine O'Neal has to go (preferably along with Jamaal Tinsley) and Indiana needs to look to rebuild. With Danny Granger and Mike Dunleavy on the floor, the Pacers have two good wing players, but no shooting guard. I believe that they think they can get one more season out of Travis Diener as a starter at point guard before drafting his replacement next season. With Troy Murphy the Pacers have an athletic-ish big who can move and shoot. What they don't have is a slashing, scoring shooting guard. I think the Pacers draft Gordon move Granger and Dunleavy to the wings, and play extremely small and run, run, run.
#12--Sacramento Kings; 38-44 (4th Pacific)
Anthony Randolph, 6-11, PF, LSU
The Kings have no inside presence, neither do they have a point guard. I believe that they solve their point guard problems either next year in the draft or through free agency (probably TJ Ford at this point). With Randolph the Kings get a player with pretty good "upside," who actually rebounded in college (8.5/game), which is a skill neither Brad Miller or Spencer Hawes is particularly good at.
#13--Portland Trailblazers; 41-41 (3rd Northwest)
DeAndre Jordan, 7-0, C, Texas A&M
I believe the rumors that the Blazers are trying desperately to get away from making this pick. They have enough young guys littered on their roster to fill two different teams, so adding another is not the best of plans. Either they trade down to draft a foreign player to leave in Europe, or they trade the pick for some immediate veteran help. In either of those scenarios, I believe that the team moving up will draft Jordan, the 7-0 center from Texas A&M who has great upside but questionable work ethic. But, as they say, you can't teach size. If the Blazers are forced to pick, I think they still take Jordan as a front line position back up for both Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge.
#14--Golden State Warriors; 48-34 (3rd Pacific)
Joe Alexander, 6-8, SF, West Virginia
For a team that doesn't bother to do anything but run, shoot, and score in bunches, you can never have enough wing players. And with Baron Davis needing a new contract and the reluctance of Golden State to spend large sums of money there could be a hole at the wing as everyone moves up a notch on the position chart (Monta Ellis to PG, Stephen Jackson to SG, nobody at SF). Joe Alexander could fill that hole nicely as an athletic, good shooting, rebounding wing that would be a perfect fit in the Don Nelson offense.

Drum roll please........
With the 8th pick in the 2008 NBA Draft, the Milwaukee Bucks select:
Russell Westbrook, PG, UCLA (6-3)
New GM means a new direction for the Bucks. I hope that John Hammond took notes during his tenure in Detroit for how to build a consistent winner. With the hire of Scott Skiles, Hammond has already put a stamp on the team, defense and teamwork will be prized over histrionics and a refusal to pass. With this pick, Mo Williams and his non-point guard playing is gone from the team, traded away to anyone willing to take him. Westbrook steps in to that Chauncey Billups defensive point guard role, Redd plays the sweet-shooting Rip Hamilton run around in circles on offense role, Bobby Simmons or Desmond Mason plays the Tayshaun Prince stopper role (maybe they can even trade for Prince using Mason or Simmons), and Andrew Bogut, Yi Jianlian, and Charlie Villanueva rotate through the "big guys down low who communicate on defense and protect the rim " role (and since none of them can do that, hopefully the Bucks can trade or release some players to get ones that can). This is the pick the Bucks should make. And hopefully they do (or until I read some more rumors and make a new mock draft).