A Heavy Dose of Thought

I've written plenty about the Brewers so far this season, most of my posts revolve around nerdy analysis of how the Brewers are doing compared to their statistics. Are the Brewers playing above their stats (that is, are they getting lucky)? Are the Brewers playing below their stats (are the Brewers unlucky)? What can the stats tell the hardcore and casual fan about their team, and how can that help inform their own commentary and fandom (however irrational it may be from time to time). With the two glaring exceptions of Derrick Turnbow (who should just give up pitching at this point and focus on doing something else) and Eric "The Walking, Talking Human Gas Can" Gagne most of the Brewers are well liked throughout Milwaukee. I'd like to emphasize the "most" portion of that sentence, as not all the Brewers are well liked, even by their own management it seems. Which brings me in my incredibly roundabout way to Bill Hall.

Now, I have asked in the past if the General Manager of the Brewers, Doug Melvin, has any idea of what he's doing. I've demanded to know what the manager, Ned Yost, was thinking on certain plays throughout the season. And now, I'm merely going to ask if the organization has any concept of the damage their haphazard moves do to a player. It's one thing to move a player around the infield, or make a shift from infield to corner outfield. The Brewers have done it successfully with Ryan Braun, the Cubs (and Nationals) have done it successfully with Alfonso Soriano, hopefully the Matt LaPorta outfield experience is working in Huntsville, the Marlins moved Miguel Cabrera from third base to left field for a season or two, and even the overspending, high payroll Yankees have at least discussed moving Derek Jeter to the outfield (which will never happen, but they must have sat down and had a discussion or two, if you believe the newspapers and bloggers). It is an entirely different proposition to move a player from infield to the demanding position of center fielder, as the Brewers did to poor Bill Hall last season. And I'll tell you why.

Bill Hall has managed to play in 677 games for the Brewers, his entire major league career to this point. He's 28, signed in 1998 and spent 4 seasons in the minors before debuting in 2002. From 2004 to 2007 he managed a minimum of 126 games each season, getting his at bats in fill in work, the standard role of a utility player on a team, picking up at bats in blowouts, Sunday games, injury fill ins, the second leg of double headers, and getaway games. His breakout season came in 2006 when he belted 35 home runs in only 148 games. Then the fun started. Up until 2007, the season in which Bill Hall played 136 games (130 as a center fielder), he had played 7 total career games in the outfield, out of a possible 447. He had played 440 games at second base, short stop, and third base. Suddenly, Bill Hall was the starting center fielder for the Brewers. Why was Bill Hall moved to center field? Bill Hall was moved because of widely held belief that a player's statistics dictates his positional value. The belief stems from the idea that first base, third base, left field, and right field are easier defensive positions, so your best hitters (and weakest defenders) play those positions to maximize their hitting (not wasting energy on defense) while minimizing the risk of poor defense costing games. Catcher, second base, short stop, and center field, being in the middle of the diamond, are considered the more difficult defensive positions, so sacrificing offense for a better defensive player at one of those positions is acceptable. However, if you can find the rare player (and I mean rare, like Mays, Mantle, DiMaggio, Snider rare) who can play center field well and hit for power, you have an advantage over other teams at that particular position. Which once again brings us back to Bill Hall and 2007.

The Brewers decided to move Hall to center field assuming two things: one, his superior power numbers and playing every day would make him a better center fielder in the national league; and two, he opens up a spot on the field for Craig Counsell to keep warm until Braun comes up from AAA. That was the theory at least, that Bill Hall would play well enough to cover up for his mistakes in center field, Counsel would hold down the fort until Braun was ready for a stretch run with the team poised to make a move, and the combination of Braun's power at third (a traditional power position) and a superior power center fielder in Hall (a non-traditional power position) would push Milwaukee over the top (by the way, this is the same logic that lead to the Cubs playing Soriano at center for too long, and not catching fire to overtake the Brewers until they moved him to left and let Felix Pie play center, and not hit that well). What the Brewers grand plan forgot to take into account was the taxing effect playing center has on players. There really is a reason why a power hitting center fielder is tough to come by, the position demands, day in and day out a dedication to defense and the craft of playing the outfield. Heck, trained center fielders who have played for years at the position misplay balls, or lose a step and need to be moved, or are so focused on defense that their offensive numbers atrophy. Defensively Bill Hall was not that bad, committing 9 errors on the season in over 1000 innings of play in center. What killed the Brewers was that every measurable hitting statistic went down, to the point that Bill Hall was just another center fielder, and there was no advantage to having him at that position, as his poor defense was not made up with above average offense. The Brewers went out and got another center fielder, Mike Cameron, and moved Hall to third as Ryan Braun proved to be even worse at third than expected necessitating a move to left. After all the maneuvering Bill Hall ended up back where he started, playing the infield. Unfortunately for Hall, his power numbers still aren't up to par for a third baseman, so the Brewers benched him and are going with a platoon system at third with Russell Brayan.

I believe that Bill Hall should be traded, if for no other reason than to get him off the team and somewhere where they understand his skill set. He's a free swinging player with occasional pop who can hit for doubles, but strikes out way too much. More than that though, he's a utility infielder who could make an okay everyday second basemen. What the Brewers should learn from this is to make decisive moves based upon personnel on hand, not based upon movement for movement sake. Tony Gwynn, Jr. would have been a good move in center, but the Brewers decided against it in 2007 and again in 2008, now Gwynn is almost untradeable for anything other than spare parts and prospects, merely because there is no large sample size of statistics to get people excited about. I just won't ever understand this team I guess.