A Heavy Dose of Thought

Its been 44 games in the Brewers season, and after watching the disaster that was the Boston series, I thought I'd do a little nerd-esque analysis of the Brewers. Once again, for those of you tuning in for a nice rant or an interesting post about TGWICL you are forewarned, this is going to be another statistical analysis of the Brewers performance. But first...

Two things occurred to me over the past week. One, the Doug Melvin/Brewers Plan post got a little out of the way from me, which I realize now that I've had time to sit down and process some information into a more coherent babble in my head. Two, for those of you out there who wonder or care, I just enjoy writing this blog a little too much. Its fun for me to just sit down and write a Joyceian stream of consciousness about sports and topics that I enjoy. So, in case you're keeping track, I really enjoy doing this and wish this was a full time job for me. Sadly, it isn't, but that hasn't deterred me from writing some more.

Also, before we start crunching the numbers, I have a few impressions from watching this Brewers team that didn't really get hammered out in my previous post.
1. What kind of baseball team are the Brewers? I kind of asked this question in my last post, but wasn't too clear about my thinking. Baseball people love talking about American League versus National League baseball. As much as I can figure, when a media-type talks about AL baseball, its code for non-stealing teams that take pitches and have power throughout the lineup (you know, non-thinking, non-exciting winning baseball). NL baseball is code for stealing, bunting, sacrificing, defensive teams that attack pitches and don't have much power throughout the lineup (you know, over-thinking, overly dramatic, overly exciting, occasionally winning baseball). Using that as a basis, I can't figure out who the Brewers are as a baseball team. While all teams use both styles of play, teams do build around one idea or the other, with some teams (A's, Yankees, Red Sox as "AL style" and Marlins, Twins, Angels as "NL Style") going extreme in their strategy (some of this is the nature of the leagues, with the NL having the pitcher and the AL the DH). What is the Brewers style? I want to believe that they are in the "AL style" camp, with hitters 1-7 being able to hit with power (the pitcher and Jason Kendall being the exceptions), but manage to over-think situations and play small ball. For example, the Brewers will attempt to steal with power hitters up at the plate; won't take many pitches to ensure that the starters are more worn down when facing the power hitters the second time through; randomly bunting with the middle of the lineup; and be overly aggressive on the basepaths to "force the issue" (I hate it when baseball teams "force the issue," there is nothing more moronic than taking an out at second after a sure single to "put pressure on the defense"). The Brewers sometimes forget that there is one number, and one number only that matters in baseball: 27. That's it, the only number that counts: 27. Anything that takes away from 27 is bad (strikeouts, "forcing the issue," random bunting, over-stealing), anything that preserves 27 is good (walks, smart baserunning, conservative steal attempts, bunting with a purpose). The Brewers need to remember one axiom, one thing to keep in their heads at all times: "When there is an out left to an offense, anything can happen, once that out is gone, nothing can happen."
2. I'm getting sick of interleague play currently construed. As Bob Costas pointed out in hie book Fair Ball interleague play is here to stay, and it can be a good thing. But this haphazard way of playing interleague is a little ridiculous on two counts. The first is obvious, its going to be a long, long, long time before the Yankees come back to Miller Park, and I doubt my A's are ever coming. The set up of randomly assigned games in interleague play is patently ridiculous. I don't need to see the Twins every year, and the good people of Minneapolis don't need to see the Brewers every year either. It should be like the NFL, with each division matched up and rotated every year. That way I know I can either go to Yankee Stadium on a vacation or watch the Yankees at Miller Park every three years. The other ridiculous notion might only be ridiculous to me, but here goes: its slightly unfair to the Brewers to have to go into an AL park with a roster spot devoted to a pitcher because of a lack of DH, then essentially play short-handed against an AL team; and its unfair to the Twins to come to Miller Park with a roster spot devoted to a DH and play a pitcher down in a NL park because the pitcher has to hit. Either the DH needs to go (a stance taken by proponents of going back to more traditional baseball) or the DH needs to come to the NL (a stance taken by proponents of moving forward with the game). I'm for either. Baseball is the only professional sport that penalizes teams when crossing leagues. When the Packers play at the Titans they don't have to bench a defensive lineman because AFC teams only play the 3-4, so why should teams in baseball sacrifice roster spots merely because they're in a different stadium?

On to the numbers. I promise this will be quick. The Brewers sit at 20-24, last in the Central (on pace for a 74-88 season). They've allowed 221 runs, and have scored 193. Their offense is 12th in the 16 team NL in runs scored, tied for 14th in on-base percentage, and 11th in slugging percentage. Their pitching is 15th in runs allowed, 15th in earned run average, and tied for 13th in walks per game, which is last place with two other teams. According to their Pythagorean Win-Loss numbers, the Brewers are actually playing above their stats, as they should be 19-25 (on pace to go 71-91). Granted one game off is not above their stats, but looking at their current projections, the Brewers runs scored and runs allowed projected over a 162 game season puts them squarely at 71-91, while their current record would project them 3 games better at 74-88. All of this could change as the sample size grows, but one thing is striking, and it relates to my above made point. The Brewers give away outs, either through errors (giving the opponent more outs), or through base running blunders, stealing, bunting at inopportune times, etc. They have an on base percentage of .317. The first place Cubs (and it pains me to write that) average a full run and a half more a game than the Brewers (5.8-4.3) and their on base percentage is leading the NL at .372 (those marks lead the majors). If there is one stat that correlates directly to winning it is runs scored, and if there is one stat that correlates directly to runs scored, it is on base percentage, the one stat the Brewers are disastrous in. Fix the on base percentage, stop running and bunting out of innings, and the Brewers should improve, no matter how bad the pitching gets.