Sports on the Brain

I was talking with some friends over cards the other night while watching the Brewers-Marlins game, and we all were wondering what's going on with the Brewers. As I've already posted, the Brewers could use a bit more leadership, a bit more pitching prowess, and a bit more of a focus on the little things that make winners. My major question is more directed at Doug Melvin than a general, player-oriented question. Doug, do you have an actual plan for the future of this franchise? Do you know what's going on? Do you go to games, do you keep track of your AAA and AA rosters, do you even understand the basics of your job?

Now, I'm definitely not advocating for a major move, nor am I attempting to bash Doug Melvin who has done a pretty good job lately of constructing this team. My question hinges around the future of the franchise as well as the present. One of the benefits of rooting for a team that has Billy Beane as a general manager is that the fans understand what Billy is doing at all times. Before this season, Beane traded away Dan Haren, former AL All-Star and a pitcher with exciting, electric stuff (as the Diamondbacks have discovered to their joy). Beane also shipped Nick Swisher out of town to the White Sox (who are benefiting from his presence) and will probably be making a few more moves. Most fan bases would accept this as a sign of surrender, and immediately start rooting for the prospects and kids to develop, hoping that within a few years the team can turn the corner and dominate for a few years before doing a similar trade/purge again. A's fans immediately look at the players and assume that since Beane got them, they must be good, so we should be just fine. This trust comes from understanding the plan the Billy Beane has put in place. Understanding the plan helps to understand the moves, and you can see that Beane is preparing a good young team for a move to Fremont and a new ball park with new revenue streams. The young team will come into their own right when the new revenue starts, and he can keep a core group together while filling in the blanks with veteran depth that he can afford. I love watching his moves, because seen through that prism, they make sense. So, my question to Doug is what is your plan as General Manager? I can't seem to figure it out. But just in case I'm wrong, we'll walk through what I think a GM should be doing and planning, and whether or not Doug seems to be following something like my system.

Now, my system runs counter to what most people would think a GM should be doing, as I put (influenced by both Billy Beane and Moneyball) a greater emphasis on the future and the first half of the season, instead of focusing on the present and the second half of the season. So here goes my system (five points/concepts):

1. A GM has to know what type of baseball your team is going to play. Once you determine what your offensive and defensive focuses/philosophies are going to be, you can begin to build your team. Billy Beane has decided that his team is going to be station to station, big baseball playing team on offense with an okay defense. He will never sacrifice money or leverage over a player who can't get on base consistently, and he never takes a flyer on a player who is best known for defense instead of his ability to draw walks. Part of this decision has to be where you play your home games and where you play the majority of your road games. Dan O'Dowd, the GM of the Rockies, looked around his franchise in 1999 and made a fundamental decision to change the way the Rockies play baseball. Looking at Coors Field, he determined that any player could hit home runs in the thin air of Denver, but those same players with bloated home stats were getting killed on the road. He determined that he needed to build an offensive team that was almost completely unreliant on the home run to score. He focused on speed, contact hitters, and good defensive players to man the preposterous outfield at Coors. He looked at his pitching staff and performed studies on how the ball reacts to the thin air (this lead eventually to the humidor being installed at Coors Field making the ball act more like a sea-level ball than a mile-high ball) and changed his pitching staff away from pitchers with sinkers and soft breaking balls to power pitchers that rely on hard breaking pitches like sliders and four seam fastballs thrown down in the zone. This lead to a reduced ERA for the pitching staff and a good strategy that would work on both the road and at home. O'Dowd conceived and executed a plan to reshape his franchise, and they made it to the World Series (albeit very luckily and improbably). What kind of baseball do the Brewers play? The run occasionally and play small ball, occasionally they play station to station and wait for the homer, and their defensive personnel varies wildly from one year to the next.

2. A GM has to know what type of player he wants in his organization. This is a minor point, put should be followed religiously. In Moneyball, Beane complains about how the A's once drafted a guy who was later arrested for robbing a bank, and occasionally they'll draft a guy who doesn't even want to play baseball. With the Brewers working under a budget when drafting, signing, extending, and trading for players a GM has to be sure about everyone he signs. In this respect, Melvin has been good and bad. He's been good in that he's got Prince Fielder, Rickie Weeks, JJ Hardy, Ryan Braun, Corey Hart. But he's been bad in that he doesn't seem to understand who he's dealing with for certain players. Whether Prince Fielder really was angry with Melvin for not meeting his monetary demands or not, a GM should know that a client of Scott Boras is going to be driven by money, no matter the facade they put up to the public. Don't ever forget Alex Rodriguez had to go behind Boras' back to negotiate with the Yankees to get his new contract.

3. A GM needs to focus on depth within the franchise at all positions. This is the most important part of a GM's job. Just because you have a good player at a position doesn't mean that you shouldn't be drafting and signing players to fill in behind that players. Prince Fielder is (hopefully) a fixture at first base for the Brewers for years and years. That does not prevent the Brewers from drafting first basemen for years and years. You never know about injury obviously, but building a farm system is even more important. Prince mans first base, and you draft and develop a hot shot prospect at first base, that brings value to both Prince and the prospect. If Prince is in the last year of a contract and you don't think he'll re-sign, you can trade him mid season to get value before he walks and you have nothing for him. If Prince is extended of re-signed, then you can trade the prospect for help. Franchise depth is always important. The one thing I keep reading is that there is not much depth outside of the outfield and pitching in the Brewers farm system. Doug has failed in that respect with depth, and I don't think he understands the importance of depth, or maybe he does but just doesn't focus on it.

4. A GM needs to think about the future. I hate cross over thoughts but this one is important. There are three ways to build a franchise in any sport. There is the (1)Yankees/Red Sox way of building a franchise. Those teams just throw smart money at the problem and get better and better. I'm sure the Yankees/Sox budget for Deep South high school scouting is larger than the entire Brewers scouting budget. There is the (2) Marlins/Twins way of building a franchise. Those teams attempt to build up a major league team, keep it together for two or three years, then strip them for prospects and start over. There is the (3) A's/San Antonio Spurs way of building a franchise. Those teams attempt to build a team for now, while looking five years into the future. Every move is made with respect to both the current needs and future needs. Money is not spent unless it has a specific purpose that can be easily conceived. Money is never spent just to spend money. I have no idea where the Brewers stand on the future department. I tend to think that Melvin thinks he a (3) franchise, when in fact, he's building a (2) franchise. Everyone keeps thinking that the Brewers are building for the future, I think the Brewers are building for 2009-2010. By 2011, the Brewers will begin dumping salary, restructuring contracts, and playing more prospects.

5. Finally, a GM needs to think about the present. This is a thought about what's going on now, and what's going on in June, July, August, September, and (hopefully) October. I hope Melvin is thinking about the non-waiver trade deadline, the waiver trade deadline, and the final roster set for the season. But I don't know if he is.

I'm not requiring Doug Melvin to keep me updated with every thought. But what I do want Melvin to do is to be consistent with what he's doing with this team. You can't move Bill Hall from utility infielder to center field to third base over the course of three seasons and expect him to keep up his stats. You can't develop Ryan Braun into a left fielder when you have Corey Hart in right, Tony Gwynn theoretically in center, and Matt LaPorta sitting in Huntsville as an outfielder. Who goes, Gwynn? Hart? Who would play center field? If they stay, where does LaPorta go? If LaPorta is insurance for Fielder leaving to go play for the Yankess than admit it and move LaPorta to first in Huntsville. And can we hire a GM that can draft a catcher or two or three to have in the farm system? That's all I want, some semblance of a plan from this team.