Vince_Condella's Blog

Thursday, May 1, is a classic reason why I don't use probability of precipitation (POP) in my forecasts.  POPs are the 30% chance of rain, or 80% chance of rain - terms that you often hear in the weather forecast.  But not at FOX 6.  Why?  It's confusing and often misleading.

The National Weather Service (NWS) forecast for Thursday is calling for a 50% chance of showers.  This is not a rap against the NWS forecasters.  These people are top-notch and many of them can forecast circles around me.  But I think this is a procedural thing for them.  I believe it is required that they include POPs in their precipitation chances.

The way I see the weather situation for Thursday, we may not see any raindrops around here until after 3 p.m.  That means that much of the daytime hours will be dry.  It looks like there will be enough dry air at low-levels of the atmosphere to keep incoming moisture from reaching the ground.  In fact, Thursday morning may feature some sunshine.  Our FOX 6 forecast reflects that scenario.

I may be totally wrong about Thursday's weather, but I just don't see where making a blanket statement of 50% chance is telling our viewers information that will be helpful in planning their day.  If I want to play golf in the morning, go for a morning walk with the dog, or maybe even a morning bike ride, 50% chance for the day won't help me much.  But if I hear that there will be some morning sun and then a chance for showers after 3 p.m., then I can plan my day better.

I bring this up because many people want to see the POP in a forecast.  They ask me why I never use it.  My response is that I would rather give them a specific forecast based on the timing of the event.  I'll admit that it would be easier if I just went on the air and gave a 50% chance for Thursday and that was it.  By being specific and actually stating that I expect no showers before 3 p.m., I'm setting myself up for a busted forecast.  If the dry air doesn't hold out and we get raindrops around Noon, I'll look bad.

My response to that is "so what".  People tune to my forecast to hear specifics.  I'm sure many of the NWS forecasts share my view, but as I stated earlier, I believe it is in their forecasting procedures to include POPs.

It's just my opinion, but while some people might like to hear POPs in their weather forecasts, I find them too general for most weather situations.