FOX 6 Weather Notes

4pm, Monday, May 12, 2008

From FOX 6 Chief Meteorologist Vince Condella

Quite chilly near the lakeshore today despite the sunshine.  Afternoon highs only in the mid 40s at some lakeside locations.  So once the sun sets tonight, with dry air and light wind, look for lows to reach the upper 30s in many locations overnight.

 

Tuesday should be a windy and warmer day as pressure gradient between departing high pressure and incoming low-pressure in the central Plains creates a southeast to south breeze.  The southeast component of the wind will keep lakeshore locations cooler, but low to mid 70s possible inland with more of a south wind and sunshine.

 

All numerical prediction models pointing to showers and a few thunderstorms moving in Tuesday night with warm air advection and some limited lift in the atmosphere.  Convection will be elevated, however, with best instability above 5,000 feet.  So some thunder is possible overnight Tuesday night, but SPC (Storm Prediction Center) keeps us out of any severe threat.  Moisture is rather limited.

 

The good news is our exclusive RPM model (SkyVision Plus) moving all rainfall out of here by 6 a.m. Wednesday.  Cold front passes through by then with sinking motion and northwest wind.  Look for mostly sunny conditions with some cumulus cloud formation for Wednesday.  NAM and GFS models a little slower in taking out the precipitation.  They linger some rainshowers Wednesday morning, but I will side with the RPM on the faster speed.

 

High pressure overhead on Thursday gives us a pleasant day.  Then another question of timing for showers on Friday.  GFS model hinting at a few showers in some unstable air by Friday afternoon.  Not a lot of moisture, however, so doesn't look like a big deal at this point.  However, baroclinic zone sets up over WI through the weekend, with weak surface low-pressure centers moving down the thickness lines into WI through Sunday.  I'll need to keep the chance for periods of showers going all weekend long, although this type of set up may provide ample breaks in the rainfall.

 

Monday Night: Clear

Low: 38 - 42

Wind: SE 5-10mph

 

Tuesday: Partly Sunny, Breezy and Warmer

High: 58 Lakeside, 74 Inland

Wind: SE-S 12-22mph

 

Tuesday Night: Breezy and Mild

Showers and Thunderstorms Moving In

Low around 52

Wind: SW 10-20mph

 

Wednesday: Mostly Sunny and Windy

High near 65

Wind: NW 15-25mph

 

Thursday: Partly Sunny

Morning Low: 40

Afternoon High: 65 Inland, 54 Lakeside

 

Friday: Partly Sunny with Scattered Showers in the Afternoon

Morning Low: 45

Afternoon High: 67

 

Saturday: Mostly Cloudy with Rain Showers

Morning Low: 45

Afternoon High: 60

 

Sunday: Mostly Cloudy with Rain Showers

Morning Low: 45

Afternoon High: 58